Economic Affairs Committee

21 juillet 2026

Committee Début réel House of Lords

23:40 - 25:23
Intervenant 1
Welcome to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee's one-off session on the publication of the OBR Office Budget Responsibility's Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report.  We recommended in our last report on the fiscal framework that this very important document get more publicity, so we thought we would lead by example, get more publicity by inviting the authors back in to discuss various elements of it.  And we're really grateful to the three of you: Professor David Miles, a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee of the OBR; Tom Josephs, also a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee; and Laura Gardiner, Chief of Staff at the OBR.  We are screening this live on Parliament Live TV and a full transcript will be taken and we'll circulate that to you so that you can make any factual corrections afterwards.  So, thank you again for your time. 

We're very, very grateful.  Can I start with a general question on spending and reform of spending, which is in which spending areas, and obviously there are large substantial areas, National Health Service, pensions, social care, etc., which spending areas would you highlight where reform could have the most pronounced effect on the long-term trajectory of spending and on public finances?  And another way of putting this question, I guess, is which areas pose the greatest risks, which areas do you have most concerns about in the medium to long-term trajectory, where the government has more credible control over the levers of controlling that spending?  David, will I start with you, or Tom? 
25:23 - 26:24
Intervenant 2
Thank you, yes.  And thank you for giving us the opportunity to do something you were keen that we do do, which is help publicise the Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report. 

We're very grateful that you've found time to see us quite soon after we published it.  I think if I'll answer a related question, which is where are the spending pressures that we've identified that generate the largest increase in overall spending over the next few decades?  And it's probably no surprise to say that they are in the areas of health and pensions or welfare support for the elderly, which account between them in roughly equal measure for the whole pretty much the whole of the projected increase of about 10 percentage points in GDP on government spending.  That's on an assumption of what we call unchanged policies. 

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