College Decision Day in an Era of Uncertainty

Last Friday, May 1, was College Decision Day, a day when high school seniors must commit to a college. It has always been a moment of family tension, but this year the conversations that unfolded around kitchen tables were likely more fraught than usual. Questions about where to go—and what to study—now sit alongside deeper uncertainty about whether a four-year degree remains a good bet. To a growing share of families, America’s colleges and universities have lost some of their allure. Rising costs, student debt, and mounting evidence that not all degrees pay off have weakened the long-standing narrative about the value of a college education. At the same time, respect for the skilled trades has increased, especially as rising demand for tradesmen like plumbers and HVAC technicians has driven up wages in those fields to the point where they rival—and often exceed—those of many college graduates. Conversations about the relative value of college degrees often end in frustration because the comparison is not straightforward. For instance, the return on investment of a college degree varies greatly not only among colleges but even more so across programs at the same college. Meanwhile, the uncertainty unleased by AI only complicates decisions about what to study and why. Looking at earnings data can help make things a bit clearer. For example, there is now clear evidence that many workers in the trades can outearn college graduates. But simple wage comparisons miss key factors. The cost of education differs dramatically across pathways, as does the timing of earnings. Trade workers typically take on little or no debt and begin earning earlier, while college graduates frequently borrow large sums and delay earnings. Work-life patterns also differ. Careers in the trades can be physically demanding and, therefore, somewhat shorter on average, while college graduates often have longer careers in less physically taxing occupations. Although precise data on career length are limited, these differences can materially affect lifetime returns. Drawing on data from several sources, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, I have examined (with the help of Claude and ChatGPT) returns across major fields of study and the skilled trades. The results are striking: Once costs and career length are taken into account, lifetime earnings across many pathways cluster tightly. (See Figure 1.) Figure 1: Net lifetime returns for different occupations, including direct costs and opportunity costs. Source: Author’s calculations using data from several sources including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Census Bureau. Skilled tradesmen such as HVAC technicians, electricians, and plumbers often out-earn college graduates who majored in fields like social work and the liberal arts. Computer science stands out as a high-return outlier—though AI’s impact on that field is only beginning to be understood. These are averages, and variation within each category is substantial. Some programs deliver strong outcomes; others do not. And, of course, decisions are not made on data alone. Preferences, expectations, and family aspirations all play a role in choosing a college and career path. I saw these considerations play out firsthand over the past year as my oldest grandson navigated his senior year of high school. His search for the “right” college sparked many intense family discussions and made clear just how high the stakes of College Decision Day can feel . My daughter—a highly successful attorney with impeccable academic credentials—was determined that her son attend the “right” (that is, most prestigious) college. Because of my work studying college outcomes, she often turned to me for advice. When I tried to bring data into the conversation—pointing to the range of viable pathways and outcomes—she bristled at the suggestion that her son might go into the skilled trades rather than attend a four-year university. More than once, she threatened to ban me from further discussions if I continued to suggest deviations from the traditional path. I doubt this dynamic is unique to my family. On the contrary, I think it reflects a broader national trend. We are asking families to make high-stakes decisions in an environment where the returns to education are more variable—and less certain—than they have been in recent memory. And yet, parents are so used to the idea that their kids should go to college that they often refuse to consider any alternatives. College Decision Day still matters. But it matters differently now. There is no single “right” choice—rather, there is a range of pathways, many of which can lead to stable, well-paying careers. Recognizing that reality may not eliminate the tension around the kitchen table (to be clear, it didn’t in my family). But it might make those conversations a little more grounded—and a lot more productive. The post College Decision Day in an Era of Uncertainty appeared first on American Enterprise Institute - AEI .