On Iran, Trump Has the Cards

Like everyone else who wants to see Trump’s Iran policies succeed, I’ve been annoyed by the media’s coverage of this issue. It’s not that the media has been distorting the facts—although there has been some of this, of course—but in trying to find problems with Trump’s Iran policy, the media has focused on unimportant or side issues, making the Iran question seem to be much more complicated than it actually is. In reality, Trump has adopted a policy that will enable the US to get much of what it wants from the Iran war, without endangering American lives. The US objective here, in case it’s gotten obscured by all the controversy, is simple: to require Iran to give up the nuclear material it has developed over many years. This is necessary because Iran is not a normal nation, wishing to pursue a set of normal policies over time. It is a rogue nation, governed by a rabid religious-based dictatorship, whose principal objective over the last 40 years is the eventual defeat of the United States and Israel, and the domination of the Middle East. If Iran can be defeated, most of the Middle East, including Israel, will be able to settle into a peaceful region under what are called the Abraham Accords. The principal mechanism Trump is using for defeating Iran is a US naval blockade of the Hormuz Strait, which will prevent any ships from going to or from Iran. This is the key, because it will prevent Iran from selling any oil or gaining any material resources that will help it break the blockade or continue its suppression of the Iranian people. The daily loss of the blockade to Iran is estimated at $400 million. But the loss of these funds is not the only problem of the blockade for Iran. The country may soon run out of storage facilities for the oil it is pumping out of the ground. If Iran can’t ship out that oil and does not have sufficient storage facilities, eventually it will have to shut down some or all of its wells. According to many experts in this field, shutting down producing oil wells can permanently damage or destroy them, and thus limit Iran’s ability to sell substantial amounts of oil, even if it reaches an accord with the US in the future. So, Trump’s blockade policy, as simple as it is, can be devastating to Iran, and can be kept in place indefinitely without significant risk to the US or the world economy. If Iran’s leaders are not willing to give up their nuclear ambitions—which is the US’s fundamental demand—they may diminish or destroy Iran’s future as a major world oil supplier. Thus, Trump does not have to do anything at this point but wait for the Iranians to recognize the seriousness of their dilemma. The longer they wait, the more Iran’s future will be in jeopardy, and the more pressure will be placed on the remaining members of its government to come to terms with the US. The delay in reaching an agreement is now entirely on Iran, where different factions in the government are apparently feuding over whether to meet with the United States and face the inescapable demand that they turn over all their nuclear materials. But if you’ll excuse the term, Trump has all the cards. There are of course some downsides to cutting off Iran’s supply of oil to the world. First, it has and will raise world oil prices, perhaps over the long term, meaning higher costs for US consumers, and bad news for Trump and the Republicans if the inflation this will produce lasts until the November election. On the other hand, if Trump succeeds in his effort to get Iran to hand over its nuclear material, this will be the most significant foreign policy victory for this country (and a secure world) since World War II, and achieved without significant US casualties. In addition, as oil prices remain high, other countries with substantial oil resources will begin to sell more, and open more wells, bringing down oil prices. There are some downsides. Higher world oil prices over a sustained period will benefit Russia, and could prolong Russia’s war on Ukraine and Putin’s hold on office. On the other hand, the recent electoral defeat of the leader of Hungary, Victor Orban, has removed the only remaining obstacle to an EU loan of $109 billion to Ukraine, giving Ukraine a much better chance of pushing Russia out of its territory in the year or years to come. The fact that Orban was supported by Trump and was a beneficiary of a campaign speech by JD Vance only suggests how fortunate we are that Trump got it right on Iran. The post On Iran, Trump Has the Cards appeared first on American Enterprise Institute - AEI .