Closing the US-China Military Balance of Power Gap in the Pacific

The historic $1.5 trillion 2027 national defense budget request now under consideration by Congress would allow the American taxpayer to invest in both the capacity and capability of the nation’s military. It would ramp up the industrial base and fix long-standing gaps in readiness, modernization, competitiveness and weapons stockpiles. The result could mitigate the growing military balance of power gap between the United States and China in the Pacific.   As House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers said in his opening statement during the Pentagon budget oversight hearing this week, the proposed level of investment “gets defense spending back to 4.5 percent of GDP. That’s where we need to be if we want to truly deter conflict.” The proposed budget targets the gaps that matter most. It would rebuild manufacturing capacity and supplier diversity across air, maritime and missiles and munitions stockpiles, which, along with space and cyber, are the foundation for Pacific region deterrence, readiness and response. The series of images below illustrate the military balance of power between the United States and China for a subset of hardware-focused capabilities in three time frames. The first uses a modified United States Indo-Pacific Command slide to illustrate the region in 1999 when the United States had the clear advantage. The second image portrays a current 2026 snapshot of the growing China advantage in the region. The third image projects the initial output of the capacity the proposed budget would fund to mitigate that growing imbalance. The estimated increase in United States military capability available in the Pacific shown in the 2030 image for the opening stage of any contingency is the result of three main things. First, the overall growth in the number of aircraft and ships in the fleet emanating from the combined 2026 and 2027 budgets and proposed future year defense base top line budgets. Second, an increase in overall throughput and readiness rates resulting from the proposed budget that improves the percent of globally available forces and therefore also increases the forces available for assignment to the Pacific. Third, the multiple complementary approaches to partnership with industry that include incentives for manufacturers to invest in facilities, tooling and the workforce up front; increased direct federal investments that expand suppliers and accelerate innovative solutions; and creative revenue sharing arrangements between the government and industry. Increased rapid production of munitions and defensive missiles is a key tenant of the National Defense Strategy, which emphasizes the line of effort to supercharge the defense industrial base. The budget request reflects this priority. For example, according to 2027 budget justification documents, manufacturing capacity and delivery rates would increase by an average of nine times more than current output for priority systems. Ballistic missile production for items such as the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) and Conventional Prompt Strike would go up 14 times from 70 to 987 per year. Cruise missiles, including the Tomahawk, which was heavily employed during Epic Fury, would go up by nearly a combined five times from 207 to 1005 per year. Production of interceptors that shoot down incoming threats, also of primary importance during Epic Fury such as the Patriot, THAAD, SM-2, and SM-6 would go up by more than eight times from 447 to over 3800 per year. Taken together, the combined 2026 and proposed 2027 budgets would invest nearly $64 billion in firepower and protective missiles prioritized by the Munitions Acceleration Council . This injection of resources does not include any supplemental funding or other defense industrial base efforts and, combined with multi-year procurement authorities and pre-negotiated frameworks, could solve two of the most wide-spread production capacity challenges—the demand signal and budget stability for the commercial workforce and supply chain and the uncertainty of year-to-year incremental funding and budget tradeoffs that increase unit costs for the taxpayer. The proposed 2027 budget also requests continued robust investments in shipbuilding and aircraft production with $65.8 billion to procure 18 new battle force ships and 16 non-battle force ships, $8.7 billion to invest directly in the maritime industrial base and increases in the aircraft fleet flying hours and capacity. While the results of this investment will be more directly seen in decades not years, by 2030 there will already be tangible improvement, including the integration of new medium unmanned surface vessels into the fleet along with the speedy delivery of seven new medium landing ships. Additionally, with this funding the overall air fleet could grow by ~50 airframes per year while also improving availability and mission capable rates. Taken as a whole, the 2027 budget request ends the false choice between capacity and capability or between sustainment and modernization. It funds both. America can mitigate the current military balance of power gap in the Pacific and the threat it represents with this overdue combination of complementary and necessary investments. U.S. China Military Balance 29APR26 Download The post Closing the US-China Military Balance of Power Gap in the Pacific appeared first on American Enterprise Institute - AEI .