Will the Rash of College Closures Limit Access? I Think Not.

The announcement that Hampshire College will wind down operations after 2026 landed with a familiar mix of alarm and lament . Another small, distinctive college will soon disappear. For many observers, these moments feel like cultural losses, not just institutional ones. Colleges do more than just provide an education; they anchor communities and have unique traditions and identities. Their disappearance carries an emotional weight that exceeds the pure economic logic behind it. There is a sense, often unstated but deeply felt, that colleges are institutions that should endure indefinitely. But the closure of Hampshire is not an isolated event. It is one of the many casualties of a broader shift that is likely to reshape the higher education landscape in the coming decade. Two forces are converging. The first is exogenous to what’s been happening in the higher education space: The long-anticipated “demographic cliff” is now arriving, as the number of traditional college-aged students begins to decline . The second is attitudinal and a product of how the sector has evolved in recent years. Public confidence in higher education has eroded , driven by concerns about cost, value, and ideological bias. Together, these forces are putting sustained downward pressure on enrollment. For institutions—especially smaller, tuition-dependent colleges—this creates an existential threat. A declining number of students graduating from high school and an increasingly skeptical attitude toward toward higher education mean both fewer applicants and lower yield. This makes it more difficult for colleges to cover costs. One natural concern is that closures like this will reduce access to higher education. And there is a good reason to take that concern seriously. Research has consistently shown that most students attend college close to home. When a nearby campus disappears, it is easy to imagine that some students will simply not enroll anywhere. But that conclusion rests on the assumption that geographic proximity is a primary mechanism driving college attendance. And that assumption deserves closer scrutiny, especially in the current environment. A decade ago, online learning was widely viewed as a second-tier option, suitable mainly for nontraditional students or those with limited alternatives. That perception has changed. The pandemic forced institutions across the spectrum to invest heavily in digital delivery, improving both the quality of instruction and the student experience. More importantly, it accelerated a broader shift in public perception. Survey data corroborates the notion of changing sentiments around the value created by this sector. In recent years, the share of Americans who believe that online education can provide an education equal to or better than in-person instruction has risen substantially. A 2025 survey , for example, found that more than half of U.S. adults consider the quality of online education to be equal or superior to that provided in a traditional classroom setting—a marked increase from pre-pandemic levels. If that trend continues, the closure of a local campus may no longer carry the same implications for access as it once did. Students who previously might have relied on a nearby institution may view online options as viable alternatives. In that world, the relationship between geography and enrollment becomes less direct. The low marginal cost of online education means that supply could easily be expanded to meet any new demand. This does not mean that online education is a perfect substitute for the residential college experience. Nor does it suggest that all students should choose it. But it does have important implications for how we think about the coming wave of institutional closures. While college closures may remain culturally and emotionally significant, this may not translate into an equally large loss of educational opportunities. That has important implications for how we think about the coming wave of institutional closures. Rather than relying on a geographically dispersed network of under-enrolled campuses to promote access, policymakers and institutions may need to focus more directly on expanding high-quality, flexible pathways to education, including through online or hybrid programs. None of this makes the closing of Hampshire College any less poignant. Institutions like Hampshire play a unique role in their communities and the higher education ecosystem. Their disappearance represents a real loss. However, technological and pedagogical innovation has opened new doors to ensure that students who may lose physical proximity to a campus will still be able to access higher education. The post Will the Rash of College Closures Limit Access? I Think Not. appeared first on American Enterprise Institute - AEI .