European Commissioner Andrius KUBILIUS in Warsaw, Poland at the Warsaw Security Forum 2026

10:27 - 27:16

Andrius Kubilius

In my view, your generation will witness and participate in two major transformations on the European continent and globally. Transformations of a magnitude that happen only once in a hundred years, or even only once in a millennium. Let's start with the turbulences we are witnessing right now on the European continent in order to better understand what those transformations we shall see. First, definitely what we see, Russia is escalating and is still not being deterred. Next year Russia will allocate 180 billion euro for its military budget, they are publicly announcing that, and that will be 33% increase if to compare with today's budget.

In purchasing power parity terms, Russia next year will spend the same amount or even a little bit more than all the European Union member states are going to spend together. Around 500 or 550 billion euros.

We need to understand that when we compare spending in Russia, we cannot look only into nominal numbers. Purchasing power parity is exactly what we need to use. Russia is still outproducing us. Russia is rapidly making military technological innovations, like new types of drones. If day X comes, we will face a battle-tested Russian army, able to use 10 million drones per year, that is around 30,000 drones per day, with a war economy and a stronger army than they had in 2022.

Russia is preparing for a long war and confrontation. So this is from one side. Second, from another side, because of rising Chinese economic and military power, our transatlantic partners are going to shift more and more of their resources from the European continent towards the Indo-Pacific. And they are asking us Europeans to take primary responsibility for conventional European defense. The Americans will stay in Europe, as they say, with a secondary responsibility and nuclear umbrella.

This is the so-called NATO 3.0 concept. So for the next 10 to 15 years, the principal strategic task for Europeans will be to build a new security architecture for Europe, based on NATO, but also on much more European sovereignty in our own security. And this is the most profound transformation of European security in nearly a century. Europe faces a deep transition. The territorial defense of Europe must transform from a transatlantic collective defense of Europe, created back in 1949 with establishment of NATO, towards a much more European collective defense of Europe.

This transformation demands from us to implement what I call the Europe 3.0 concept, to have a union not only for the free movement for people and for goods, but also a union for defense. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was outspoken during her State of the Union address, a recent address on the defense and security of Europe. I quote: "Our doctrine, our institutions and our decision-making have not kept pace with the new reality." "Our systems were made for a different world." "They are driven by well-intentioned attempts at consensus and compromise."

"But we need to consider whether they are still fit for the purpose." End of quote. A very clear call for big bang reforms in our institutional defense readiness, because we are facing a crisis of status quo in today's defense architecture on the European continent. And the Commission President offers a bold idea for overcoming this status quo crisis, for achieving a big bang in the development of European institutional defense readiness. And I quote: "This is why we will set out ideas to make a European Security Council with partners like Canada, Norway, Ukraine, the United Kingdom a reality."

"The urgency is clear." End of quote. To keep pace with the new reality, clear institutional proposals what we are talking about. An European Defense Union as a broader geographical foundation for a new European defense architecture, including not only EU member states but also Ukraine, United Kingdom, Norway and perhaps Canada. And an European Security Council for effective decision-making.

This is how new European defense architecture can be built. As Chancellor Scholz spoke during Munich Security Conference, we need to build European pillar of NATO, separable but not separate from NATO, built on the basis of mutual assistance clause in the Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union. To build such a new European defense architecture is a huge immediate task for all of us. And it's once in a hundred years task. What was created back in 1949 on European continent will go through profound transformation.

Besides once in a hundred years transformation of European defense architecture, in parallel we shall witness once in a millennium global transformation. We need to recognize that by the end of this century, China has every possibility of becoming the world's largest economy. This is what a lot of experts are predicting. And India will likely follow the same path and will become the world's second largest economy as the world's largest democracy and most populous nation.

That is India's difference from China. We have, as you know, some challenges with China, but we are looking for strongest partnership with India. But both will seek to play a much more significant geopolitical role in global affairs, and this is natural consequence of economical power. This is a tectonic reversal of what occurred almost 600 years ago, when following Columbus' voyages, Europeans became a global power and developed rapidly grow economies. And the West at that time eventually overtook the East economic and geopolitical, even though China and India before the age of discovery were economically much stronger than medieval Europe.

Those global transformations will bring a lot of disturbances, some of them we see even now, others we can and we need to predict. These developments are difficult, if not impossible to predict. However, it is possible to assess the future of the major geopolitical players by assuming that no major global catastrophe will occur and that current long-term trends will continue. The European Union's geopolitical position in the next 70 years will depend heavily on the future trajectories of the other major geopolitical players like China, India, United States and Russia. When we are looking into the internal perspectives of European Union itself, we can expect that the next 70 years of the European Union will be defined by the same internal trends that have characterized its first 70 years: a gradual and natural evolution, especially during the crisis, towards greater unity and consolidation.

If China and India return to global economic leadership, the consequence will be that the United States will be pushed from the first to third place in the global rankings. For Americans this may prove psychologically challenging. They will need to adapt to the reality that the Pax Americana has come to an end. The slogan "Make America Great Again" shows that natural nostalgia for the glorious times of American global leadership is already starting to play more and more important role in American political and geopolitical mentality. It will take time to overcome this psychological challenge.

The rise of China and India is unlikely to have the same psychological impact on the European Union. The European Union is today the world's second largest economic power after the United States, and ending the century in fourth place rather than second is probably be less traumatic for Europe. The European Union will likely be much more directly influenced by developments in our immediate neighborhood, particularly Russia. Among the five major geopolitical actors, Russia's future is the only one that is almost impossible to predict. If Russia continues Vladimir Putin's aggressive policies or similar policies under new leaders and because of that remains isolated from the world's major economies and markets, it is likely to experience a prolonged domestic decline.

Such a trajectory could result in increasing internal instability, more aggressive domestic and foreign policies, and even the collapse of the state order. At the same time, before the end of the century, there is also the possibility for Russia to transform itself back to normality. Historically, such transformations in Russia often followed major national disasters, including military defeats.

When looking at the long-term future, we first need to distinguish between developments that depend on our own decisions and those that do not. What change does not depend on us, our task is not to resist history, but to adapt intelligently to it. Today, we need to counter China's unfair economic practices through effective anti-coercion measures, and we must defend the global order against any aggressive Chinese attempts to seek not only global economic leadership, but also geopolitical dominance. But Europe will not be able to prevent China and India from becoming the world's two largest national economies. Even the United States alone may find it difficult to alter the trajectory of China and of India.

Nostalgia for past national greatness will not stop the United States dropping from number one to number three in global rankings. But what then should Europe's response be to these long-term geopolitical developments? A great European influence on the global economic and geopolitical leadership would be possible only if Europe and the United States increasingly acted as one closely connected and interrelated strategic community. Combined, our common population, economic strength, and technological capabilities will help the EU and US retain global leadership even at the end of this century. Is such a development possible?

The dominant trend in the West today appears to be increasing nationalization of everything. But it is possible that this will eventually give way to a new phase of what I call Westernization, a growing recognition that only a united West can successfully compete with the rising powers of the East. Europe should consistently support such a process. Europe can play only a limited role in moderating the rise of China and India, and only if Westernization will happen. But Europe can play a decisive role in mitigating the challenge of Russia's unknown future.

Europe can have a real positive impact on Russia's eventual transformation back into a normal state, a country that is no longer aggressive towards either its own citizens or its neighbors. This scenario is only, is the only sustainable foundation for lasting peace on the European continent. But it is unlikely while Vladimir Putin remains in power. That is today's reality. All other scenarios for Russia will be dangerous and will bring even greater security threats to Europe.

For example, an unconditional reset to zero with Putin, or Russia that continues along its current path while becoming an economic and social black hole, or the collapse of Russian statehood. Each of these scenarios would create a more aggressive Russia, which will become more desperate and violent. It would be a serious mistake to remain indifferent on our side to Russia's future, or to assume that the European Union has no influence over Russia's long-term transformation. Yes, the European Union cannot and should not attempt to engineer political change inside Russia. However, it is in Europe's vital strategic interest to encourage developments that would eventually lead Russia back to a non-aggressive and responsible normality.

The European Union has, in my view, three most important instruments that could inspire both Russian society and future Russian leaders to pursue such a transformation. The first is continued European support for Ukraine's military success. Russians must understand that imperial nostalgia leads not to national greatness, but only to millions of personal tragedies for Russians, not only for Ukrainians. The second is sustained European support for Ukraine's economic and social success through its integration into the European Union, like the successful integration of Poland, Central Europe, and the Baltic states after the Cold War.

Such integration of Ukraine can start with military integration, which is in the vital interest of Europe. Success of prosperous, democratic and European Ukraine could eventually inspire Russians to seek a similar path for their own country and to reestablish normal relations with Europe. The third instrument is a clear, long-term European strategy defining future EU-Russia relations once Russia has returned to normality. Europe should make it clear: renewed access to European markets, trade and economic cooperation will only be possible after Russia becomes a normal country, a peaceful and responsible state. We need to understand: the European Union can help to create the conditions for Russia's eventual transformation back to normality.

That will fulfill one of its greatest strategic responsibilities towards future generations by contributing to lasting peace on the European continent. The alternative is a permanently aggressive Russia, a permanent threat of Russia to the security of Europe. Mitigating the rise of Chinese and Indian economic and geopolitical leadership, or helping to facilitate Russia's return to normality are tasks of historic significance. To respond effectively, the European Union must become powerful and independent, above all in the fields of defense and security. While remaining a strong European pillar within NATO, the European Union must be prepared to assume primary responsibility for the conventional collective defense of Europe.

After more than 80 years of a predominantly transatlantic defense system of Europe, I repeat myself again, Europe now needs to build a truly European system of collective defense. And in such European system of collective defense, Poland will play very important role. On this side of Europe, the future of security is a defense pillar of Poland, Germany, Ukraine with Nordic and Baltic countries integrated around, inside of NATO 3.0 and making the backbone of Europe 3.0 defense architecture. This is an ambitious, urgent and historic task for Europeans. Once in a century European leadership is called upon to respond to challenges of this magnitude.

No one else can accomplish this task on Europe's behalf. Europeans must genuinely Europeanize their way of thinking. They need to recognize that an European approach, not national fragmentation, is what will enable Europe to become strong and up to the tasks, tasks of once in a hundred years or once in a millennium. It is now time for national governments to overcome the natural temptation of excessive nationalization. Giving priority to national should not mean indifference of national leaders to the European.

National interests themselves will suffer if Europe as a whole is weakened. And in closing, we are living through a century of profound turbulence and profound transformation. We are witnessing the crisis of status quo. Jean Monnet once observed that the European community would be built through the crises and would become the sum of the solutions adopted in response to those crises. The current crisis of the status quo should lead to the same result.

We should not fear this organic evolution of the European Union. On the contrary, we should welcome the opportunity to live through this time in which Europe matures and assumes primary responsibility for its own future. And this will be especially, this will be especially the task for you, for your generation, for you as students here at Natolin and for you as the future leaders of Europe, because it all starts with the power of ideas. Thanks a lot.