Delegation for relations with Israel Ordinary meeting
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DELEGATIONS European Parliament
Speaker 3
Well, a lot of issues to discuss. With this short introduction, I would like to give you the floor, dear speakers, and we will start with Mr. Remmel.
Michael Remmel
It's a pleasure to be with you today from Jerusalem.
I will try also to address a few of the questions that you already gave and also to address how we can see it from the European side, the coming election. So, as probably most of you know, just a few weeks ago, the 8th of September, the lists of the candidates were submitted. There are 38 lists. So the field is now set. And you asked also about maybe changing the ballots for an open candidate possibility for the direct voting.
I don't believe that will be the case soon. The discussion about changing the election system in Israel is a very prolonged one. Just to give you a small anecdote, many years ago they changed the threshold in Israel. It's now 3.25. You should ask yourself why 25?
That's exactly the problem. It's a long compromise that was being dealt and done. In the end, that was the only thing that they could find as a common idea how to set the election ballot. So I don't believe that will change in the next years. But of course, we have a lot of obstacles also in this regard, also in the regard of the system.
And we all know the judicial reform that was introduced from this current government. So changing election system is a very sensible thing in Israel, especially now. And this election will be very sensitive. It's the first, as acknowledged already, before the 7th, since the 7th of October '23. So it's highly personalized, emotional.
It will be heavy shaped from AI-generated content. We are just in the start of it. We will see a lot of it more after the holidays will end this weekend. And then we will go in the 7th of October, the third anniversary of the 7th of October, and then in the main campaign. And I will think we will see a lot of things that are also disturbing.
And of course, also the hijacking attempt of the airplane yesterday, the security element plays a huge role. And of course, just the day before, Netanyahu went in front of the press and said there will be maybe some security issue that could be in the vicinity of the election. And we had one yesterday. So he probably didn't knew that that will happen, but the subject of security, the security of the Israelis and how they perceive their own security will play an immense role in this election. This is what people actually vote on.
Of course, there is the subject of high rents and cost, living costs, but those are not the subjects that will shape this election. And if we look in a maybe in a core message that a change of government in Israel would likely maybe change the tone in a domestic agenda, if it will happen. But it would not necessarily change the position on, for example, Palestinian statehood or also probably not the security policy and the threats that the region has. This is something I think we have to acknowledge. And of course, if we look on the political landscape at the moment, and we have 120 seats in the Knesset, you need 61 for a majority.
If we look at all the polls, and of course there are some from different channels that maybe take it in a little other dimension, but the most of the surveys show that we have a deadlock. So both different sides, the one from Eisenkot, who leads the Yeshar party, the Straightforward party, are maybe according to most polls the biggest party at the moment, or could be the biggest party. And Netanyahu with Likud is right behind them. And the blocks are almost the same. So we are talking about something like maybe 52, 54 seats for the opposition at the moment, and something as the same, 50 to 53, some even have advantage for the coalition at the moment from a few seats.
So they are very, very long and there's actually a deadlock.
So those who make the difference will be the Arab-Israeli parties, which get at the moment according to surveys something like 12 mandates. And of course the question is, would there be a possibility to make a coalition together with the Arab parties, which is highly sensitive in Israel at the moment, especially after 7th of October, we can also dive into it maybe later on. And there's of course a lot of small parties also this time in the, also in the right wing, with parties like the party from Smotrich who joined another party that calls Identity from Moshe Feiglin and the party from Zaliha and Hendel who deal with economic and subject from reservists and the right, which is also a big discussion also according to the orthodox men who should be drafted to the army or not. So those more smaller parties and there's a new party also in the right wing from Ofer Winter, former member of the army, officer who also established a party and they are all on the verge of the threshold which is 3.25 and this could change the blocks and what we see. Last time, the last election 22, that was exactly what cost the left side in Israel the election because Meretz didn't pass the threshold and one of the Arabic parties didn't pass the threshold.
So it changed the all the the the framework that we see and this could be something in the moment. And I would even say that this time Netanyahu wasn't able to bring all of his partners in his block together to be sure that he doesn't lose any mandates under the threshold. And this is not the case in this time, so this is something that we should take a look in. But you know, a Prime Minister stays in office in Israel until a successor wins a majority and the government has just doesn't have to lose and the position must win. And this is a main issue that we will see also in the campaign of Likud and Netanyahu.
And if we look at Netanyahu and his camp, so he looks in continuity and harder, harder right that will stay together, many veterans in his top list that we saw from others, also people that were very engaged in the judicial reform, also new faces that are part of of this way. And we don't see so much women, for example in the Likud list there are something like three women in the first 20 something seats, that's even for for Likud one of the lowest number that we saw in the last years. And of course we will see some subject that are more aligned with subject that we saw in the last on this term with dealing with different subject that are with judicial reform and also the subject of security after the 7th of October and how we deal with it. And of course there are the right-wing parties like the party from Ben-Gvir, Otzma Yehudit, which we presume that they will be able to pass the threshold. And of course the ultra-orthodox party who get this time a little bit more of a fight in their own block or in their own camp because there are some smaller parties that are trying to find ways to modernize the ultra-orthodox world.
Ultra-Orthodox world will probably not be able to pass the threshold, but they have some ability to take some votes also in the Ultra-Orthodox camp. And of course, if we look at projects that are in the European also side or in the international side, we will probably see that projects like the E1 or other will be part of the campaign, talking about the settlement, talking about possibilities of building houses and making the settlements even more going forward with settlements will be one of those subjects that we will see, especially from people like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, but we will see it also in some points also inside of Likud. And if you look at the other block, the block of Eisenkot, as I said before, the so-called change block, we wouldn't see a change that will go so deep as we think it might be. If there is a mass majority for this camp, there will be of course a change in the tone, in agenda. And Eisenkot is a former IDF chief, and of course the subject of security will be something that he would take into his consideration.
He has also, he tries to put himself more as a center-right party with also people that he took into his party like Matan Kahana or Chili Tropper who come more for the right wing. But also Eisenkot pledged already many times in different points that he had in this campaign that he is not in favor of a Palestinian statehood. He wants to see that the international agenda is being more kept and to take down the tone that we have in the moment, but I don't believe that we will see a major shift in this regard if there will be a coalition that is mainly built or only built from the of the opposition that we have today. So this is something we also have to take into consideration if we look at what could happen. Of course, he has coalition conditions that parties must recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorse the declaration of independence and commit to a national service for all Israelis, like I said before, the subject of being part of the army, giving your share also mainly in the Ultra-Orthodox society is a huge subject, but it's also a subject that's in regard of the Arab-Israeli society, which not all of the people in this society go to the army, which is also a subject that's being dealt in some of this party.
So we see a different wave, and of course in this coalition, in this opposition party with Eisenkot, we see names that we know from many years ago, from the last years, people like Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who were prime ministers shortly in a rotation, and of course the Democrats that established themselves again as a left party, actually the only last list of a left party in the Israeli Knesset, if we take out the Arab-Israeli parties, with their leader Yair Golan, and of course also Liberman with the party Yisrael Beiteinu, who is more hawkish on the security issues, secular and more focused on the drafting of the Ultra-Orthodox. So there are different agendas here in the same camp, and of course the common denominator is not especially a peace agenda, but it's more the accountability for the 7th of October and to see how the Israel can put together again its statehood as a country that people believe in its institutions. And I already talk about the talked about the Arabic parties, so we have maybe just to give you a short overview, 12 mandates according to surveys.
And then there's one party that will not run as a joint list, Ra'am, which was a part of the Muslim Brotherhood, which their leader Mansour Abbas is a very courageous person who took them out of this element. And even the second person on the list is a Jewish Israeli, Yuval Segallovitch, who was deputy minister in the Yesh Atid party in the past. So somebody who brings something new, and it's the first time that an Arab list has a Jewish Israeli candidate on the second place, which plays a huge role and could also change the blocks and how we see it. But at the moment it doesn't seem that there will be enough votes to change this block in the system. So we have, if I come to conclusion, we have three blocks at the moment that we can see, or three possibility, not blocks, sorry.
The one is of course the scenario that Netanyahu wins with his block. And then if we look at it from the European international way, we can expect more pressure on annexation. The subject of settlements will play a big role as it plays now. Probably renewed push for the subject of judicial reform. And we will have more friction also with Brussels and with other partners in the international arena.
The second scenario is of course the opposition would win, led by Eisenkot at the moment. We will see that's something that I think we can say, a de-escalation in tone, more sensitivity to Israel's standing in the international arena, restoration of international trust. But like I said, probably not a run for international for the Palestinian statehood and not a big change also in the way that security is being looked at the region. If you look at Hezbollah in Lebanon or even in Syria and those subjects that we see here in the area, I don't see a major shift. And of course the third scenario, which is most probable at the moment, is the scenario of a deadlock between the blocks.
And then like I said, Netanyahu doesn't have to win, he just doesn't have to lose. And if he stays in power, the next election will happen in a few months and things can change. And this is something also I think that he is waiting for and could be the most, yeah, the scenario that we can probably see according to the surveys today, that will probably go long. So if I conclude, Israel is voting how the 7th of October changed Israel. That's the main point of Israelis at the moment.
It's a reason of continuity or a mandate for a change. That will be the main question I think for Israelis in this election. I think that for Europe and the international partners, the lesson should be not to expect a big change on policy after this election, even a more for Europe favorable coalition, which maybe can also change with blocks. We will have to see how the results are in the end. They will not solve every disagreement that Europe has with Israel, even in a further coalition.
But it will be, I think, as a something that we have to take in mind, it will be better to recognize which doors can change in governments and which doors will open and which door will be maybe closed and see how we can move through these doors and find more or new ways of collaboration that were maybe closed in the last years. And hopefully this will give us some ground to work on. If in a few weeks we will hopefully know what could be and what could not be, what is possible and not possible.
But we should work, and I think that's the work of all of us, to keep those doors open and to see how we can move ahead and be optimistic of what is coming in the future. So I will leave it in this and thank you so much.
Bert-Jan Ruissen
Thank you so much for your overview and for, well, interesting speech about the current situation. It's very clear that the coming elections are very, let's say, exciting and to see, well, what will happen, which block will win the election. Well, it's very useful to us to be informed about the current state of play. Thanks for that. I'm really happy that in the meantime I can say that our dear chair, Hildegard Bentele, managed finally to join us.
She was able to clean the agenda, I suppose. So I'm really happy that Hildegard is also here today. So also for your information, dear friends, participated online. Now we move to our next speaker. This is Mrs., well, my notes, Mrs. Tsitlik-Yayu from the Director of Israel-Europe Relation Program, Mitvim.
May I give you the floor?
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Yes, thank you, and thank you for the invitation to talk to you today. It's a pleasure, and I would like to pick on from where Mr. Rimel has stopped, and I agree with his analysis, with his good analysis. So what I want to speak today is about what is being talked in the campaign, and Mr. Rimel has touched upon the most urgent issues, but also about what is not being spoken of during the campaign. And one example is Gaza. Gaza is hardly mentioned in the campaigns at the moment.
There is a lot of talk about the responsibility for October 7th, so people are still looking at the past, at three years ago, and are looking at the future in terms of the security prospects of which leadership in Israel would guarantee more security for Israeli citizens. And this is what occupies most of the Jewish voters right now. And despite the fact that I think Netanyahu's responsibility for 7th of October is quite, you know, established, together with other people at the IDF and other places, the question here is not only about the past, but about the future and how the voters of those two blocks, two Jewish blocks, see the capability to lead the defense and security of Israel forward. And so Netanyahu's voters are still certain that Netanyahu is the best option to keep Israel safe, while the opposition block think there has to be another way, and they do emphasize a bit more the issue of political solutions. So if the Netanyahu block puts all the coins, or most of the coins, on military force, the opposition side also speaks about political solution, but as Mr. Rimel has said, they are not talking about a Palestinian resolution of the conflict.
And besides the Democrats of Yair Golan, they are not speaking about the two-state solution. And here, actually, in the last couple of weeks, we see a return of this two-state solution to the agenda. It's actually Netanyahu bringing it back to the agenda, blaming, or trying to scaremonger the public, that if Eisenkot established a government together with Yair Golan, the Democrats, and what he calls the Arabs, the Ra'am political party of Mansour Abbas, and the opposition political parties, then Israel is heading towards a two-state solution.
Speaker 4
And as Mr. Rimel rightly said, Eisenkot denounced that he will, you know, he said openly that he does not support the two-state solution. But at the same time, I think more and more people are talking about the fact that they cannot and don't want to take responsibility, definitely not over Gaza, but also not on the three million Palestinians living in the West Bank. And so people are talking around this issue, but not really addressing what sort of solution can be taken after the elections. And I think from a European perspective, since so many voters and citizens in Europe, in many countries in Europe, mainly in Western Europe, are taking such a great interest in Israel and the conflict with the Palestinians, I think that would be to some extent a bit strange to see how the Israeli campaign is not really addressing earnestly this conflict, but rather going around it and really addressing the personal security. And that has, I think, a lot also to repercussions perhaps to Israeli-European discourse.
And what I want to touch about, to touch on now is a few research institute polls that were conducted in the last month and to try and distinguish what is on Israelis' minds and to address the question that Mr. Rauzen raised about the Israeli standing in the world, legal standing, measures taken against Israel and those issues. And here, for example, according to the Israeli Democracy Institute, they held a poll at the beginning of September and they found that security and foreign affairs is at the top of the interest and concern of Israeli Jewish voters. And then comes the economic situation and the high cost of living, which we will not discuss, and other issues like the conscription to the IDF. But foreign affairs are definitely at the top of the agenda. According to Mitvim, to my, the research institute, the think tank that I'm working in, we conducted our foreign policy index in June, so it's a public opinion poll, and we found that about 60% of Israelis are concerned or very concerned about Israel becoming a pariah state.
And we also found that 58% of the Israelis think that it's very important that Israel will remain a part of the liberal democratic camp. If I will address for another minute the INSS, the Institute for National Security Studies poll, it tried to assess different risk for Israel. And there they also found that international isolation is quite highly perceived as a threat among the public, about 26% of the Israeli public in July thought that it was a high risk. And when they asked the same questions to expert, then the amount of the perception of the risk was way much higher, it was 44%. And the level of damage that could be caused to Israel, again we see a gap from what the public think that would happen if Israel would be internationally isolated, then in the public the level of damage, 60% thought it would be high and 28% thought it would be moderate and 9% thought it would be just very little.
And the expert had a much 85% majority thought the you know the cost would be very high and only 15% thought it would be moderate. So we see a gap between the level in the level of knowledge about the repercussions of Israel becoming a pariah state and having more and more European measures towards Israel. And just this morning there was an item in one of the media outlets in Israel Ynet quoting an interview with a European diplomat, an anonymous interview in which he actually warned very dramatically about the lacking or or the diminishing patience of Europeans, governments and publics towards Israel regarding the violence of settlers in the West Bank and the build up of new settlements and outposts. And he was warning that the next government would not have this 100 days of grace or you know such a a period in which the European countries would allow this government to form and they would demand to see very quick steps. And and if not then measures are in the loop and you know we know that at the EU level this is not the case because there's a required of unanimity but we also see that there is a group of countries in Europe in the EU and outside of the EU that are taking measures regarding settlements.
And so this is a signal to Israelis and this is being discussed a bit more in opinion in op-eds in the media but less in the campaign. So if I would just draw a few other issues, Mr. Riemer has rightly mentioned E1. The contract to build in E1 was postponed from just a week or 10 days before the elections to the month of December, so after the elections. But it's it's coming, it's looming. And so this is something the the government of Netanyahu as a government of you know in the midst before the next government will be formed will still needs to address and this is coming just right after the elections.
Maybe to address also an issue about well let me say that any none of the polls other than the one that Mitvim was conducting and that was held in June about you know Europe standing, the EU standing, Germany's standing in the eyes of of Israelis. And and let me just elaborate on that for a few seconds and then I'll go to the other more current poll that was conducted on that. So in June 67% of Israelis thought of the EU as an adversary. Only 14% of Israelis thought that the EU is more of a friend to Israel. But when we asked the same question about Germany the numbers were reversed.
So 68% of Israeli thought that Germany is more a friend than an adversary and only 18% thought that Germany is more an adversary to Israel. So Israelis do differ differentiate between the EU level and member states level. And the only poll that I've saw since that was dealing with such specific questions towards a country was about the United States. And here the results was that the United States is definitely you know a very significant issue and they tried to measure in which political party they think that the attitude of Americans towards Israel is very significant.
And there actually the relations, the numbers were mixed. So if in the EU question and also the Germany question, we could see how the opposition parties, the voters of the opposition parties were very much afraid of Israel becoming a pariah state, were very much, it was very important for them that Israel would be part of the liberal democratic camp. They thought that Germany was a friend. Here when you ask about the United States, it's not very clear-cut between the opposition and the government camp. So I think that this issue of Israel becoming a pariah state, of measures being taken against Israel, should be placed more highly on the campaign because we see those warnings coming up.
At the time being, it's not really being raised, maybe on the sidelines, but not very significantly. There is a lot of talk about, there's a consensus among the opposition parties about holding an investigation committee, a national committee of investigation after the elections. This is definitely something everybody in the opposition agrees about. But other than that, most, as Mr. Rimmel has described, the opposition parties are really in diverse opinions about settlements, about, I think maybe one, and then I will conclude with that. There is an agreement also among the opposition parties about the illegal outposts, so many of them that were built up during the four years of this government.
And there is quite wall-to-wall agreement that most of those illegal outposts should be evacuated. But you don't see the same agreement at all about what Israelis are termed legal settlements, so settlements that were approved by the Israeli government and are legalized in how they are being built. So here you really see a division inside the opposition between the Democrats and between Bennett and Liberman. Bennett and Liberman are for settlement building, the legal ones as they term it. And Yair Golan is not very clear maybe about that.
But all of them are very clear about violent settlers, about the need to curb and stop this phenomena that is very troubling to most Israelis, I would say. And I would conclude here. Thank you.
Bert-Jan Ruissen
Well, thank you very much for your analysis and for adding indeed to the contribution of Mr. Rimmel, also what you said about the external dimension. And it's really relevant to see how the Israelis are, let's say, looking to us. And I think it's important to realize that I think a lot of Israelis will realize that these elections can have great influence on also their external relations and the relations with the EU. And it's good, it's really good to see that Israelis realize that. Well, thank you very much.
We are a bit running out of time. But I would like to give the floor to our representative from the External Service, Vladimir Jarencek, may I give you the floor.
Vladimir Janosek
Thank you very much Mr. Chair and good good morning to all. So also a couple of brief points from our side and the speakers have already made my task a little bit easier because they have covered a lot of important points and provided really good analysis so also from our broader point of view I would mention a couple of points first on elections and second on our bilateral relations which were also referenced by the by the speakers here. Before doing that however I would just emphasize the two points that the chair made at the beginning and one is the importance of the discussions in in New York in the margins of UNGA also one on the side of the implementation of the Security Council Resolution 2334 but also on the discussions in support of the two-state solution including the Global Alliance and the HLC which the HRVP as you know has co-led. And the second point on the importance of civil society actually as we see today also is extremely important in Israel and we also of course will continue to to support the civil society and work very very closely with them. So first on on elections three or four broad points from our side as we see it first I think we have to bear in mind and this was said already that this is really the first election held since October the 7th.
So it's it's quite quite important and I think we will also see to what extent the population has changed to what extent the choices have changed. We we understand of course that there have been there has been a trauma and wounds are healing only slowly and there's a number of issues now also in the in the campaign so I think that's the first point that I wanted to emphasize. Second I would also agree that the race is really pretty pretty tight. It's it's quite difficult and it has changed in the polls over the past weeks and months so it's difficult to predict what really will be the the coalition the next government. In any case it's really neck-to-neck and I think it will really also depend on the coalition building after the elections and we also agree that we might brace for some period where we will simply not know and we will we'll need to allow some time for the for the coalition building.
And the third I think also was mentioned the threshold which is quite low but 3.25 we'll see of course here the the Israeli mosaic is is quite specific so there's a lot of a lot of small parties and we'll see which ones will make it to the to the Knesset and of course the position of the Arab parties which also may have a role then in in the coalition building and we will see that. So that's that's a couple of points on the elections as such. And on the bilateral relations which were referenced I don't need to I think underline the fact that Israel is one of our closest partners in the region. We have a very strong bilateral partnership it's also an important country for our security and regional stability. It is also not a secret that the bilateral relations have come under some strain in particular in the past years and maybe in particular since last year over the events and developments in in Gaza and the West Bank and the reactions of the government to it and then following that the EU response.
But I think the message that I want to leave here is that of course first regardless of the composition of the new government we will of course work as we have always done with with the new Israeli government on the basis of course the recognition that our relationship is very important.
Second, I think we will also hope that the elections could provide new opportunities maybe to turn a page and focus on on the future here. Also it will also depend a little bit on how the new government will position itself and there's been a number of issues that were mentioned. We will of course follow the the position on on Gaza, the West Bank and maybe more broadly the Palestinian issue but of course also other other issue but we do hope that with that we can we can also maybe turn a page. On our side, I think the the approach that has characterized the way we we approach of course our partnership is is one of pragmatic and frank and open dialogue and I think on our side I think this this is what will what this is what will prevail. So I will leave it here.
Bert-Jan Ruissen
All right, thank you very much Vladimir. Now the floor is open for some questions or or remarks. We still have let's say 10 minutes, we have to to conclude at 12 o'clock. So I would like now to collect some questions or remarks. Tonio, may I start with you?
Speaker 10
Thank you Bert-Jan and thank you Hildegard. What I'm worried about about this is about this 60-70% of people in Israel that they think that we are adversaries. And may I suggest humbly that after the elections maybe this delegation works a little bit in a strategy for the Israeli public opinion to understand that European Union is not an adversary. I know, I know. We are working in a very polarized but remember that our countries are polarized.
Not everything is about Israel, huh? In my country is very polarized. And this European Union is polarized. You know some groups, political ideological groups, they say that they represent all Europe. We know that this is changing and it's not true.
Particularly I'm not friendly that if you are in the right you are pro-Israel and if you are in the left you are pro-Palestinian and all this bullshit. I don't believe in that. I have always said it when I was negotiating some resolutions that you all might remember and we came on an agreement with very reasonable people from the right and the left in this Parliament. I think in that should be the example set by this Parliament and the European Union as such. Of course we have spokespersons in different groups that they speak for whole Europe, huh?
But that cannot be avoided, we know that, huh, especially in the populist camps either side. My my suggestion, my idea, my you know could be Hildegard for the after elections. Now we can do the only fear I have now is all these messages because claro Israel is a democracy. There are elections and like in our countries the electoral messages I guess will be polarizing. And this will be used by the media and the opportunists you know to you know for the you know for internal campaign here in Europe.
There are no elections I guess in West Bank or Gaza, I don't know. No, no in the horizon again. And you know so we will not have any news from there. But yes from Israel this month, I fear this month with the declarations of some politicians that we know there, huh, that you know I mean they're going to they're going to damage further, huh, the public opinion European public opinion you know about the question of Israel. That's it.
Thank you.
Villy Søvndal
Yeah, thank you very much also for all of you for your contributions. I have three questions. One is, and that's both to you but also to the European institutions. If the Arab parties will be banned from participating in the election, we don't know that, it's not decided, it's probably taken to the court, to the High Court. How would the European institutions react to that situation?
And to you, how likely do you think it'll be that the Arab parties will be banned? That's one question. Second question is to Mr. Rimmel about you say that the change will not be very big. Since last time I visited Israel and Palestine, a point of view was that the settlement movements would get a much more limited role, both in the state institutions but also in the army. Do you agree on that, that that would be a change, and do you see any other changes?
And one last question to you as well. It is in the European newspapers that Netanyahu's office and Netanyahu himself was warned before October 7th from the chief of intelligence in Egypt, but also from the foreign minister from the Arab Emirates. Which role does this play in the present election campaign, and how will it be clarified if it's true or not? And then just one comment on no news from Gaza. The problem is that since journalists, as we all know, are not able to go there, I do not really see how news should come out.
Hildegard Bentele
May I join a last question? I would like to know, you know, this coalition which is currently governing, is this set in stone? Because I mean, to be frank, you know, these two very radical parties and also the leaders of these parties, you mentioned them, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, they are creating us terrible problems, you know. So is this set in stone? So Netanyahu already says now this will be my coalition, because this will be very difficult for us.
And then also I want to ask on the Arab parties. I read about this ban, you know, that would be I think a terrible signal. And why would they be banned? I never got the reason why they could be banned. Didn't they, you know, put their list properly together or what was the problem?
That are my two main questions.
Bert-Jan Ruissen
Thank you, and maybe one additional question from my side. I was wondering what happens this week with the terror attack on the Israeli plane. What do you think, can such incidents have big influence on the elections? I can imagine that it has influence on, well, that people are thinking, well, what will happen with our security? Do you think that these kind of incidents can have big influence or not?
Well, these are our questions and the remarks. I would first give the floor to Mr. Rimmel and then to Mrs. Tzitkiayu and then to Vladimir. Mr. Rimmel.
Michael Remmel
Thank you. I will try to make it very short and then leave the floor also for Dr. Tzion to give her assessment.
So maybe shortly to the subject of Arab Israelis. The Arab Israeli parties or the Arab parties will not be banned as a whole. I don't see this happening. There are specific candidates like the head of the Balad party who incited after the 7th of October, said different things that parties wish that he will be excluded from the election. That could happen.
It's being dealt today in the Supreme Court. So this could be the way, but Arab parties or parties itself will not be banned. I don't see this happening from the 38 lists that already were submitted to the Knesset and including the Arab parties. One sentence to the Arab Israeli parties. There is, you can also see it in surveys that we do as the Adenauer Foundation, 75% of the Arab Israelis would like to see a Arab party being part of the coalition.
If you look in the Israeli Jewish society, almost the other way around. There's a big sensitivity of Arab parties being part of a future coalition. This has something to do with the situation that we see on the ground, what happened on the 7th of October and since then we can dive into it in another way. The subject of change that I spoke, there will be change, of course. It depends on which parties will be in this coalition.
If we see a coalition of Gadi Eisenkot with his parties, which is now in a coalition and they have a majority without the Arab parties of 65, 66 mandates, which we cannot see at the moment, the change will be bigger, of course. The subject of the settlements will get another treatment than we have today. But this is not something that we see at the moment. So when we speak about change, we have to be careful because the change, of course, will be there if another group or bloc will win, but it will not be as we sometimes or as we read also in the media hope for. And this is something we have to take care also when we speak with people.
We spoke about the European-Israeli relationship, which sometimes we take subjects and things in a matter that cannot happen on the ground. And it was already mentioned also European societies are at the moment very diverse politically and going in different ways. And this is something that we see in Israel, of course, also. The warning of the 7th of October, of course, this is something that is being dealt in Israel, being spoken about in Israel. The subject of security is a major one.
I don't think that it will make any big change if somebody will prove that this call happened or did not happen. In the end, we have to remember that Netanyahu is Prime Minister for the last 14 years and this is the discussion that is being or has to be discussed in Israel. Not the question when was somebody warned before, but it's a question in the end for a commission that has to see what happened on the 7th of October and how Israel was not prepared for an occasion like this, for a terror attack like this. And this is something that would happen, should happen and maybe will happen after this election, but didn't happen till now. To other subject, the subject of Netanyahu being with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as partners.
He sometimes speaks about a vast coalition with other partners, sometimes not. I think in the moment, as the other, the coalition and opposition are so divided between themselves that Netanyahu will keep his partners as close to himself as he can. If there will be another possibility after the election, this could change. But at the moment, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are partners of Netanyahu in his bloc. And there are changes that can happen.
And last point to the plane hijacking yesterday, of course it has an influence on the election. Netanyahu waited yesterday in the airport, took the people that saved the plane, that could take the hijacker from the cockpit and talked with them. This was broadcasted in television. This is something that he can show that he is the guy that is for the security of Israel. This is something that after the 7th of October less people take as granted from Netanyahu as maybe they took in the years before and he's trying to re-establish this overview about his person.
We have, I mentioned already, Ofir Winter, who changes a little bit the formation of this bloc. This could change if one party or the other will not pass the threshold. But at the moment, they are, of course, in the same bloc.
And of course when something this happens and it's happening in the favor of the current government in some kind of way, he can of course take the price from it and it has an influence. If it will be having an influence in 27 days on the election, I would not say a big one. Thank you.
Bert-Jan Ruissen
Okay, well, thank you very much. Mrs. Tsitkiyahou, may you give the floor for a short reaction?
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Yes, I will try to be very short. So, Tono, I very much agree with you and I think Israel has a lot of assets. It could be a security and innovation asset to Europe, but for the time being in many countries it is a political and normative liability and that is something the next government will need to change. So I completely agree with what Mr. Janoszek was saying. Dialogue should be opened and kept going with whatever government is in place.
We are reaching closer to the new Horizon, to the new MFF and Israel's entry to the Horizon program and there are really vital issues on the table. And I hope that there will be some corrections in the Israel-European relations and I will definitely try to do my best to do that. Regarding the Bentel Hildegard's question about is the coalition of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich set in stone? For the time being during the campaign this is exactly what it seems, but there are new players in the field. Winter is one of them.
He's coming from the IDF, a retired IDF high officer. He declared already that he will sit with Netanyahu, but you never know after the elections. And there is another political party that Mr. Rimel mentioned led by Henzel and Zelicha and they could be a swing perhaps to form a government without Netanyahu. I do not see any scenario in which the opposition parties will form a government when Bibi is in place, when Netanyahu is in place. I don't see him also being removed by the Likud party and the Likud party itself is part of the issue being very, very tight and close to the Ben-Gvir and Smotrich line.
So I think it's hard to differ between the Likud, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich nowadays. They say it themselves. And I think one issue that wasn't mentioned is disinformation and it's growing, the risk of disinformation is growing very much high the closer we get to the elections, especially a day before the elections and the day of the elections themselves. I think we are not concerned about how the elections will go inside the ballot rooms, but when the voter casts their votes everything will be perfect in the process. But outside of the ballots, of what we call Kalpi, right, where voters go and cast their vote, there may be violence.
Speaker 4
The Israeli society is very much torn, and there could be very unquiet situation in the streets in Israel, especially if the current government will lose. We may see, yeah, an unquiet transition of power, and that could be very, very problematic situation for Israel under the current security situation. So I would end up here.
Vladimir Janosek
Thank you, Mr. Chair, and I would just quickly echo what Michael said on the Arab parties. We have the same assessment, so we do hope that they will not be banned. Of course, we can recall the government of Lapid and Bennett, where I think it was an important... It was quite important to have the Arab parties. And of course, this was before the 7th of October, and we will see if something like this is possible now, and maybe that's a test for the Israeli society.
And I couldn't agree more on what was said on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. Of course, we do not interfere anyhow into elections, but of course we must agree that these two personalities in the government, that's really very difficult. As you know, there were sanctions considered by the EU. We didn't go very far, but not because we wouldn't believe that these two individuals would need to be sanctioned, but because simply they are in a government and therefore it becomes more of a difficult political conversation. But I will leave it here.
Thank you.
Bert-Jan Ruissen
Okay, thank you very much. Thank you very much, dear speakers, for your contribution. It was really... it gives a really good insight in the current situation. So many thanks for this substantive exchange. Thanks for that.
Well, now we realize it's up to the Israelis to decide. They have to choose for their future. That's what we call a democracy, and it's a lively democracy, that's clear. There's new parties, new blocs. Every election we see new parties coming up.
So we will follow with great interest the elections and the outcome of the elections. And we are very motivated, especially as Israel delegation, to continue our constructive dialogue with Israel. And in response to what Tono said, we are really motivated to do that in a constructive way and to work on a positive agenda. So thanks again. It was really great to have you here in our meeting.
Thank you very much, members, for your contribution, and hope to see you next session of our Israel delegation. And well, we shall also hope to see each other again in Strasbourg next week, I suppose. I hope so. Thank you very much. All the best.