House of Lords

4 septembre 2026

Peers examine demographic ageing, long‑term fiscal risks and options to sustain pensions, health and care, focusing on extending working lives, labour participation over 50, and the need for a cross‑government ageing strategy before ministers set out the government’s approach.

House of Lords

03:48 - 07:33

Intervenant 1

And this whole operation was brilliantly orchestrated by our committee clerk, Matthew Manning, to whom I'd also like to pay tribute. We learned a lot from many excellent witnesses. And while to pick on one is unfair, I will take the liberty of breaching this rule by paying tribute to Charles Goodhart, the former Bank of England economist, whose brother William was a distinguished member of this House, whose contribution at the age of 89 lost nothing in its clarity and pungency. He's a great exemplar of why we should not be pessimistic about the possibilities of an ageing society. I also pay tribute to other members of the committee, including those who were rotated off before this debate.

The UK is a rapidly ageing society. The numbers are striking. The Office for Budget Responsibility projections say the old-age dependency ratio, that is, the number of people above the state pension age relative to the number of working people, will rise from approximately 31% around now to 38% in 2050 and 47% in 2074. And indeed, in the years of the last governments, conservative governments, 2010-2024, the population over 65 rose from something like 16.5% to 19%. The decline in fertility rates is even more striking.

In 1964, a peak fertility rate of 2.93 children per woman was achieved. This has fallen precipitously. In 2023, it had reached a new low of 1.44 in England and Wales and 1.25 in Scotland. Now, the long-term replacement rate is 2.08, so you can see the basis of that demographic crisis. We heard from our witnesses that the prospects for raising the fertility rate are dim, and policy attempts elsewhere to do this have failed.

This was a great disappointment to me because when I worked for the President of the European Commission two decades ago, we had a confidence that the adoption of Nordic-style family-friendly policies, subsidized childcare, gender equality, more equally shared responsibility for bringing up children between men and women, that those would help sustain an adequate fertility rate. Sadly, this has not proved to be the case. Immigration is likewise not the panacea that in some quarters is made out. It might help if immigration was circular, that is, immigrants returning home as their countries become more prosperous, which to some extent has happened with East European immigration.

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